Degradation Model Updating for Failure Prognostics Using a Sequential Likelihood- Free Bayesian Inference Method and Video Monitoring Data

Abstract

Structural systems are inevitably subject to degradation that evolves progressively over time. Developing a degradation model to capture the physics of damage evolution is essential for failure prognostics, i.e., remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, to enable individualized predictive maintenance. Due to the lack of runto- failure data for large structural systems and natural variability across physical systems, uncertainty is inherent in the degradation model even if a degradation model can be constructed based on the physics of a certain damage mechanism. It is therefore necessary to update the degradation model over time based on measurements of quantities that are directly measurable. With the development of sensing and image processing techniques, it is possible to derive structural strain response from videos, which overcomes the limitations of the cumbersome and costly deployment of conventional contact sensors. While the strain video monitoring data provide rich information for structural health monitoring, the usage of this information for degradation model updating is challenging due to the implicit connection between the degradation model parameters and strain video monitoring data and the highly complicated model architectures. This research proposes a novel sequential Bayesian model updating framework for a degradation model using a likelihood-free Bayesian inference method and strain video monitoring data. In the proposed framework, strain video monitoring data are first compressed into lowdimensional latent time-series features using a convolutional autoencoder. Subsequently, a likelihood-free Bayesian inference method is employed to update the degradation model using a given time duration of the monitoring data. To enable continuous monitoring and model updating over a long time period, a sequential Bayesian model updating scheme is developed. Based on the updated degradation model, failure prognostics are performed sequentially and the associated uncertainty on RUL estimation is also quantified. The application of the developed framework to a miter gate structure demonstrates the efficacy of the proposed framework. Keywords: Remaining useful life; Degradation model; Likelihood-free Bayesian inference; Conditional invertible neural network