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A Blockade Effectiveness Assessment Model for Large Navy Ship



The major analytical methods for blockade effectiveness assessment of typical surface targets are Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment (FCA), Grey Relational Analysis and the Delphi method based on expert opinions. Related researches focus on two aspects that adapting the methods for the assessment object, or making reasonable hypothesis to adapt the model for assessment methods. AHP is applicable to the case where there are many assessment factors (indicators) and the assessment conclusion (comment) is given in the form of normalized Judge Matrix; the FCA method is applicable in the case where the comment is fuzzy and the comment is given by fuzzy operation on comment vectors. Current blocking ammunitions to surface targets include cluster munitions, airborne dispensers, etc. In this paper, a cluster munition is selected as the typical ammunition and a large navy ship as the typical surface target. Blockade effectiveness is calculated through Monte Carlo simulation method. The random number method was used to generate the falling point coordinate of munitions and the sub-munitions, and the sub-munitions’ random initiation time. By analyzing the action characteristics of ammunition, the blocking criteria, blocking index and blockade level were defined. Based on what, the performance of current simulation cycle was assessed using an improved assessment method. The single-indicator-comment membership function was constructed by FCA and then the membership of multiple sets of single-indicator-comment was calculated following AHP. After a large number of Monte Carlo cycles, the statistical expectation value tended to be stable. According to Chebyshev’s law of large numbers, the statistical expectation equals to the final blockade effectiveness, which predicts the final blocking performance. The typical ship target and munition were selected and modeled, and then simulated on the MATLAB platform. The sensitivity of the model was calculated, and the calculation results showed that the analytic model was feasible. Keywords: Blockade Effectiveness; Fuzzy Assessment; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); Monte Carlo Simulation


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